SCR Altach 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as SCR Altach welcome Red Bull Salzburg to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SCR Altach haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 4D 4L at CASHPOINT Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SCR Altach, 2 for Red Bull Salzburg and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 53% versus Red Bull Salzburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.24 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.942 / defence 0.985 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.134 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.457. Data: 22 SCR Altach games / 22 Red Bull Salzburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 45%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.22. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG SCR Altach 1.24 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.942 / def 0.985 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.134 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Red Bull Salzburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
SCR Altach 0 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 28% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (4 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 2 | Red Bull Salzburg 2W.
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.94x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
28%
3.61
28%
3.64
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.87
1.63
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
5%
18.41
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.63 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 10D 16L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. SCR Altach haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 23W 8D 1L from 32 games, 2.41 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 13W 2D 1L from 16 away games — 2.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.09 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Pre-Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 6W 10D 16L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 23W 8D 1L in their last 32 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.88 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.56 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 56%, Red Bull Salzburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 56% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 50%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat SCR Altach 0-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.24 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.63 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 28% | Draw 28% | Red Bull Salzburg 45%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 50%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.