Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Lask Linz travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 PPG, Lask Linz 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 44% versus Lask Linz 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 49% | Lask Linz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and Lask Linz 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.058 / defence 0.805 | Lask Linz attack 1.148 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.098. Data: 33 Red Bull Salzburg games / 35 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 26%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Lask Linz 3.85. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Red Bull Salzburg 70% | Lask Linz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 / Lask Linz 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.058 / def 0.805 | Lask Linz attack 1.148 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lask Linz xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 46% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz?
Record (5 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 3W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg's attack at 1.06x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.57
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Lask Linz xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.01 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 10D 8L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 19W 11D 13L from 43 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Red Bull Salzburg on 1.98 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.30 PPG from 20 outings (14W 4D 2L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 8W 6D 6L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.44 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 10D 8L in their last 43 games (1.98 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Lask Linz away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.30 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
0
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, Lask Linz have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Lask Linz 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 45%, Lask Linz 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Lask Linz in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 55% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 50% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG and Lask Linz 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against Lask Linz attack 1.15 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 28% | Lask Linz 26%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 49%, Lask Linz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.98 PPG, Lask Linz 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.