Rapid Vienna 2-0 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rapid Vienna's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Red Bull Salzburg are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 56% versus Red Bull Salzburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 49% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rapid Vienna surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Red Bull Salzburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.080 / defence 1.015 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.131 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Red Bull Salzburg bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rapid Vienna's projected output down. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 34% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.96 | Draw 3.21 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 34% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.14 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.080 / def 1.015 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.131 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Red Bull Salzburg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Rapid Vienna 2 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 34% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rapid Vienna's attack rating (1.08) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.13x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.21
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.30
1.16
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.16 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 21W 18D 22L from 61 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 41W 15D 5L across 61 games — 2.26 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 10W 11D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 21W 6D 3L across their last 30 away games, a 2.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.11 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 41W 15D 5L in their last 61 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.37 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Rapid Vienna on 2 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
4
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 63%, Red Bull Salzburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rapid Vienna) and 53% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rapid Vienna's games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 73% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 34% | Draw 31% | Red Bull Salzburg 35%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 49%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.