TSV Hartberg 1-5 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Championship Round - 9 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–5 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Red Bull Salzburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 63% | Red Bull Salzburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.969 / defence 0.946 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.125 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.03 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.969 / def 0.946 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.125 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Red Bull Salzburg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 5 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 32% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.97x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
32%
3.08
33%
3.06
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.11
1.08
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.08 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 15D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.23 PPG from 62 outings (41W 15D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 11W 7D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.23 points per game from 31 outings (21W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.08 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 41W 15D 6L in their last 62 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.29 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.23 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 55%, Red Bull Salzburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (TSV Hartberg) and 52% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 48%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 1-5 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-5 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.08 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 35%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 63%, Red Bull Salzburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.