Grazer AK 1-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 2W 4D 4L at Merkur-Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Grazer AK, 1.60 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 1W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus WSG Wattens 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 56% | WSG Wattens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.58 xG and WSG Wattens 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.027 / defence 1.107 | WSG Wattens attack 0.995 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.264. Data: 24 Grazer AK games / 24 WSG Wattens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 42% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 34%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | WSG Wattens 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 40% | WSG Wattens 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 42% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Grazer AK 1.58 / WSG Wattens 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.027 / def 1.107 | WSG Wattens attack 0.995 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
WSG Wattens xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens part of?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 42% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Grazer AK and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Record (4 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 3 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grazer AK's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.99x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.12
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.97
1.39
WSG Wattens xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.39 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 5W 14D 15L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens's form line: 9W 9D 16L from 34 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.06 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (3W 7D 6L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 2D 10L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.24 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 5W 14D 15L in their last 34 games (0.85 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or WSG Wattens away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.00 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Grazer AK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grazer AK
4
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 56%, WSG Wattens 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Grazer AK) and 69% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 31% of games; WSG Wattens in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Grazer AK's games and 56% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Grazer AK's matches and 69% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Grazer AK and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and WSG Wattens finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.58 xG and WSG Wattens 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 42% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 34%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 56%, WSG Wattens 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.85 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.