FC BW Linz 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC BW Linz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 6). Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, FC BW Linz have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for FC BW Linz, 1.00 for SCR Altach — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FC BW Linz, 0 for SCR Altach and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended FC BW Linz 2–2 SCR Altach — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 48% versus SCR Altach 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC BW Linz 41% | SCR Altach 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.21 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.835 / defence 1.179 | SCR Altach attack 0.920 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 22 games and SCR Altach's last 44.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 37% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.69 | Draw 3.22 | SCR Altach 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC BW Linz at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 37% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.21 / SCR Altach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.835 / def 1.179 | SCR Altach attack 0.920 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SCR Altach xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC BW Linz and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.92x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 22 games and SCR Altach's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.22
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.31
1.10
SCR Altach xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.10 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 4W 11D 12L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
SCR Altach's form line: 5W 11D 11L from 27 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for FC BW Linz against 0.96 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.08 PPG from their last 13 home games (2W 8D 3L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 2W 5D 6L from their last 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 11D 12L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 5W 11D 11L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.08 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 46%, SCR Altach 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for FC BW Linz and 38% for SCR Altach.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SCR Altach in 31%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 38% of games; SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 38% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 38% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 62% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat SCR Altach 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.21 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 37% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 41%, SCR Altach 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 0.85 PPG, SCR Altach 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.