SCR Altach 2-2 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to CASHPOINT Arena to face SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.50 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SCR Altach 0W, FC BW Linz 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC BW Linz — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 38% versus FC BW Linz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SCR Altach 35% | FC BW Linz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.39 xG and FC BW Linz 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.808 / defence 0.987 | FC BW Linz attack 0.728 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 22 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 18%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | FC BW Linz 5.56. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | FC BW Linz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 52% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG SCR Altach 1.39 / FC BW Linz 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.808 / def 0.987 | FC BW Linz attack 0.728 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.73
FC BW Linz xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
SCR Altach 2 - 2 FC BW Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 52% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both SCR Altach and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
Record (2 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 2 | FC BW Linz 0W.
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.81) and FC BW Linz's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.73x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
52%
1.94
30%
3.31
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.12
0.73
FC BW Linz xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
5%
21.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.73 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 10D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 0.85 PPG from 26 outings (4W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.85 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SCR Altach's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (2W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 0.88 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 4W 10D 12L in their last 26 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or FC BW Linz away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.08 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.62 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and FC BW Linz?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 38%, FC BW Linz 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (SCR Altach) and 46% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 46% of games; FC BW Linz in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 46% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of SCR Altach's recent games and 46% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 5, as SCR Altach and FC BW Linz drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.39 xG and FC BW Linz 0.73 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC BW Linz outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against FC BW Linz attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 52% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 18%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 35%, FC BW Linz 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.96 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.