Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
WSG Wattens travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Austria Vienna's games and 60% of WSG Wattens's (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for WSG Wattens and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2024, ended Austria Vienna 0–1 WSG Wattens — a WSG Wattens win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 48% versus WSG Wattens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 48% | WSG Wattens 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.149 / defence 0.965 | WSG Wattens attack 1.050 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.210. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 32 games and WSG Wattens's last 32.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 52% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 25%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.91 | Draw 4.41 | WSG Wattens 3.98. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 52% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.86 / WSG Wattens 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.149 / def 0.965 | WSG Wattens attack 1.050 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.23
WSG Wattens xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna 3 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 52% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 32 games and WSG Wattens's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.41
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.09
1.23
WSG Wattens xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
25.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.23 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 13D 11L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 0.83 PPG from 42 outings (9W 8D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Vienna's home form reads 10W 9D 1L across their last 20 home games, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.90 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 18W 13D 11L in their last 42 games (1.60 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 9W 8D 25L in their last 42 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.95 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 50%, WSG Wattens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Vienna) and 55% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 30% of games; WSG Wattens in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 50% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Vienna's matches and 55% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 75% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 3-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.23 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against WSG Wattens attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 52% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 25%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, WSG Wattens 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.