WSG Wattens 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as WSG Wattens take on SCR Altach.

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Pre-Match Analysis

WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

WSG Wattens have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.

SCR Altach (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SCR Altach's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with WSG Wattens winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 46% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 46% | SCR Altach 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 0.99 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.640 / defence 0.955 | SCR Altach attack 0.912 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.142. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.640 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 WSG Wattens games / 33 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 35% | SCR Altach 33%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | SCR Altach 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 40% | SCR Altach 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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