Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
28 Black Arena plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 28 Black Arena, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Austria Klagenfurt, 1.40 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Wolfsberger AC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wolfsberger AC have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 50% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.07 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.900 / defence 1.087 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.289 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.142. Wolfsberger AC's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Austria Klagenfurt games / 33 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 48%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Wolfsberger AC 2.08. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Wolfsberger AC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.07 / Wolfsberger AC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.900 / def 1.087 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.289 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Wolfsberger AC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 24% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (9 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 2W | Draws 2 | Wolfsberger AC 5W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.90) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.29x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
24%
4.22
28%
3.52
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.67
1.60
Wolfsberger AC xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
20.91
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.60 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 15D 15L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 16W 11D 15L from 42 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.40 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 12W 15D 15L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.15 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 4-0 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
5
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 55%, Wolfsberger AC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 45% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 40%; Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 30% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 35% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 45% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.07 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.29 / defence 0.79, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 48%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 50%, Wolfsberger AC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.21 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.