Sharjah FC 3-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Form
Sharjah FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Sharjah FC. A 1.70 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (2.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sharjah FC, 0 for Khorfakkan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 41% versus Khorfakkan 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 59% | Khorfakkan 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.04 xG and Khorfakkan 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.218 / defence 0.819 | Khorfakkan attack 0.910 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.224. Data: 29 Sharjah FC games / 29 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 63% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 15%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 30% | Khorfakkan 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 63% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Sharjah FC 2.04 / Khorfakkan 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.218 / def 0.819 | Khorfakkan attack 0.910 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Khorfakkan xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 14:15 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC 3 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 63% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.22) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.91x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.64
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.95
0.91
Khorfakkan xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
50.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.91 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 20W 4D 5L from 29 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 16L across 29 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 12W 0D 2L from 14 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 2D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.38 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 62%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 20W 4D 5L in their last 29 games (2.21 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 5D 16L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.57 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 36%, Khorfakkan 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sharjah FC and 79% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 71% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sharjah FC's matches and 79% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Sharjah FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 3-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.04 xG and Khorfakkan 0.91 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.82 against Khorfakkan attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 63% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 15%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 59%, Khorfakkan 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.