Sharjah FC 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sharjah FC welcome Al Nasr to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sharjah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 1 for Al Nasr and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al Nasr trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 37% versus Al Nasr 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 55% | Al Nasr 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.95 xG and Al Nasr 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.049 / defence 0.855 | Al Nasr attack 0.874 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.434. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Sharjah FC games / 38 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 58% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 20%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Al Nasr 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 40% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 58% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Sharjah FC 1.95 / Al Nasr 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.049 / def 0.855 | Al Nasr attack 0.874 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Nasr xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Sharjah FC 1 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 58% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
Record (2 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.59
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.07
Al Nasr xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
34.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.07 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 25W 6D 7L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 10W 10D 18L from 38 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (13W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.39 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 25W 6D 7L in their last 38 games (2.13 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.22 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al Nasr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sharjah FC and 72% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sharjah FC's matches and 72% of Al Nasr's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC and Al Nasr finished level at 1-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.95 xG and Al Nasr 1.07 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Al Nasr attack 0.87 / defence 1.29, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 58% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 20%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 55%, Al Nasr 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.