Sharjah FC 0-3 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sharjah FC welcome Al Nasr to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 3W 1D 2L from 6 Pro League matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Nasr away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 2.00 PPG, Al Nasr 1.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al Nasr trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 50% versus Al Nasr 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sharjah FC 50% | Al Nasr 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.58 xG and Al Nasr 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.161 / defence 1.147 | Al Nasr attack 1.035 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.169. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Sharjah FC games / 6 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Nasr 31%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Al Nasr 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 67% | Al Nasr 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Nasr 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Sharjah FC 1.58 / Al Nasr 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.161 / def 1.147 | Al Nasr attack 1.035 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Nasr xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Sharjah FC 0 - 3 Al Nasr.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 39% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.37
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.39
Al Nasr xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.39 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 2L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Nasr's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 2.00 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Sharjah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Nasr's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 2.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Al Nasr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Sharjah FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 67%, Al Nasr 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sharjah FC and 100% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Nasr in 33%; Al Nasr in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 33% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sharjah FC's matches and 100% of Al Nasr's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Nasr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Sharjah FC 0-3 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.58 xG and Al Nasr 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Nasr outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.15 against Al Nasr attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Nasr 31%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Nasr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Al Nasr 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 2.00 PPG, Al Nasr 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.