Sharjah FC 1-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 0.82 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.575. Data: 0 Sharjah FC games / 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 20% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.85. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 20% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Sharjah FC 0.82 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 20% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.85x) against Sharjah FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
20%
4.99
26%
3.89
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.36
1.54
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
23.23
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.54 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sharjah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 0.82 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.54 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 20% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sharjah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.