Sharjah FC 2-2 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Ain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Ain travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Ain — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.70 (Al Ain). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sharjah FC, 0 for Al Ain and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al Ain in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 37% versus Al Ain 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 54% | Al Ain 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.35 xG and Al Ain 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.721 | Al Ain attack 1.137 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.344. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Sharjah FC games / 35 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 42% | Draw 27% | Al Ain 31%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Al Ain 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 30% | Al Ain 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 42% | Draw 27% | Al Ain 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sharjah FC 1.35 / Al Ain 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.009 / def 0.721 | Al Ain attack 1.137 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Ain xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Ain kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Ain kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Sharjah FC 2 - 2 Al Ain.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 42% chance of winning, Al Ain a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
Record (2 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Ain 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Ain in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Al Ain (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
Al Ain xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.10 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 23W 5D 7L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 25W 6D 4L from 35 games, 2.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 2.11 PPG, Al Ain on 2.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (13W 0D 4L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 11W 3D 3L from 17 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.26 scored and 0.77 conceded. Al Ain's attacking output running into Sharjah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Al Ain in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 23W 5D 7L in their last 35 games (2.11 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 25W 6D 4L in their last 35 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Ain away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Al Ain in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Al Ain won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 1, Al Ain have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 29%, Al Ain 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sharjah FC) and 41% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al Ain in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 41% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 41% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Ain tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Al Ain share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Sharjah FC and Al Ain drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.35 xG and Al Ain 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Ain outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Al Ain attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 42% | Draw 27% | Al Ain 31%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Al Ain 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Ain's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 2.11 PPG, Al Ain 2.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.