Sharjah FC 2-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Ajman at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 March 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC at Sharjah Stadium this season: 7W 0D 2L from 9 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajman have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Sharjah FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Sharjah FC's 22% and Ajman's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 0, Ajman 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Ajman winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ajman trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 33% versus Ajman 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 50% | Ajman 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.10 xG and Ajman 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.015 / defence 0.914 | Ajman attack 0.910 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.194. Data: 18 Sharjah FC games / 18 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 37% | Draw 32% | Ajman 31%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Ajman 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 22% | Ajman 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Mar 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 37% | Draw 32% | Ajman 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sharjah FC 1.10 / Ajman 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.015 / def 0.914 | Ajman attack 0.910 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ajman xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Ajman kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 10 March 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Sharjah FC 2 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Ajman part of?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 37% chance of winning, Ajman a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sharjah FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Ajman's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.16
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.10
0.99
Ajman xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.99 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 18 games, going 10W 3D 5L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Ajman — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 6W 0D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Sharjah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Ajman have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Ajman away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Ajman away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ajman in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 5, Ajman have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sharjah FC 25% BTTS, Ajman 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sharjah FC) and 38% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ajman in 38%; Ajman in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 25% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 38% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ajman in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Ajman 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Ajman 2-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.10 xG and Ajman 0.99 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Ajman attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 37% | Draw 32% | Ajman 31%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Ajman 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.