Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 17 January 2027 at 13:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Al Rashid Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Khorfakkan in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who have won 8 of the last 10 meetings against Khorfakkan — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 5–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% versus Khorfakkan 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48% | Khorfakkan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.10 xG and Khorfakkan 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.106 / defence 0.832 | Khorfakkan attack 0.957 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.561. Data: 33 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 33 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 22%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Khorfakkan 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.10 / Khorfakkan 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.106 / def 0.832 | Khorfakkan attack 0.957 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.561 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Khorfakkan xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is scheduled to kick off at 13:05 on Sunday 17 January 2027 at Al Rashid Stadium.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 57% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Record (10 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 8W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.96x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.81
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.35
1.24
Khorfakkan xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
3%
37.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.24 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 21W 8D 4L from 33 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 15L across 33 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 11W 3D 2L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.33 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 64%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 21W 8D 4L in their last 33 games (2.15 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Khorfakkan away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.25 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%, Khorfakkan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 69% (Khorfakkan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 56% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 69% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.