Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Al Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 8W 1D 1L at Al Rashid Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Rashid Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Al Wahda FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.533 / defence 0.741 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.464. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.533 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 43 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al Wahda FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30% | Al Wahda FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 / Al Wahda FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.533 / def 0.741 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Wahda FC xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 57% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Record (9 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3W | Draws 5 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.53) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.54
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.02
1.09
Al Wahda FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
32.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.09 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 32W 9D 2L from 43 games, a 2.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 6L across 43 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wahda FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 17W 2D 1L from 20 games — 2.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 9W 7D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.84 scored and 1.07 conceded. Al Wahda FC's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; Al Wahda FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 32W 9D 2L in their last 43 games (2.44 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 15D 6L in their last 43 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.65 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
6
Draws
1
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40%, Al Wahda FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 40% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 45% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.53 / defence 0.74 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%, Al Wahda FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.