Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Dhafra travel to Rashid Stadium to take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rashid Stadium, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L this season (4 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% versus Al-Dhafra 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20% | Al-Dhafra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.105 / defence 1.104 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.778 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.317. Data: 10 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 10 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Draw 33% | Al-Dhafra 25%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Dhafra 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 75% | Al-Dhafra 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Draw 33% | Al-Dhafra 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 / Al-Dhafra 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.105 / def 1.104 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.778 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Dhafra xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 42% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Al-Dhafra's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
42%
2.35
33%
3.05
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Al-Dhafra xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.13 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 5D 1L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Dhafra sit at 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Dhafra have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.60 PPG overall record — Al-Dhafra travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.90 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra in 60%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Dhafra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Dhafra in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
0
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 75%, Al-Dhafra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 50% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Draw 33% | Al-Dhafra 25%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20%, Al-Dhafra 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.