Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh meet at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Bataeh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Bataeh away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Bataeh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69% and Al Bataeh 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88% | Al Bataeh 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.24 xG and Al Bataeh 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.448 / defence 0.869 | Al Bataeh attack 1.035 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.774. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 26 Al Bataeh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 27%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Al Bataeh 3.70. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Al Bataeh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.24 / Al Bataeh 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.448 / def 0.869 | Al Bataeh attack 1.035 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.774 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Bataeh xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 52% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh?
Record (4 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (1.03x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
52%
1.93
21%
4.69
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.84
1.60
Al Bataeh xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.60 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 26 games, going 18W 4D 4L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. Al Bataeh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 10W 1D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.62 points per game from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.81 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.62 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 73%.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Pre-Season
Al Bataeh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 18W 4D 4L in their last 26 games (2.23 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Bataeh away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.38 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-6 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
0
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Al Bataeh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 62% for Al Bataeh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 69% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 62% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 69% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al Bataeh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Bataeh 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.24 xG and Al Bataeh 1.60 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.45 / defence 0.87 against Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 27%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%, Al Bataeh 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.