Khorfakkan 2-4 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 44%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al-Jazira at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 September 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Jazira — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al-Jazira 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 63% versus Al-Jazira 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Jazira 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.57 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.059 / defence 1.002 | Al-Jazira attack 0.960 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.287. Data: 27 Khorfakkan games / 27 Al-Jazira games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 30%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Jazira 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Al-Jazira 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Khorfakkan 1.57 / Al-Jazira 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.059 / def 1.002 | Al-Jazira attack 0.960 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Jazira xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Khorfakkan 2 - 4 Al-Jazira.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 44% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira?
Record (2 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.87
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.80
1.24
Al-Jazira xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.24 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 4D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (15W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.63 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 15W 3D 9L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Jazira away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.54 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 4, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 54%, Al-Jazira 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Khorfakkan and 62% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Jazira in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 54% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Khorfakkan's matches and 62% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Khorfakkan 2-4 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.57 xG and Al-Jazira 1.24 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Al-Jazira attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/27 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Jazira 30%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Jazira 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.