Khorfakkan 3-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Khorfakkan take on Al-Dhafra.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Khorfakkan welcome Al-Dhafra to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 0.50 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.25 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Dhafra trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 50% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khorfakkan 50% | Al-Dhafra 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.04 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.775 / defence 1.162 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.732 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.066. Khorfakkan's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Khorfakkan games / 4 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 34% | Draw 39% | Al-Dhafra 27%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Al-Dhafra 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 50% | Al-Dhafra 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 34% | Draw 39% | Al-Dhafra 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 43% | xG Khorfakkan 1.04 / Al-Dhafra 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.775 / def 1.162 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.732 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Dhafra xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan 3 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 34% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-D-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
39%
2.54
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
1.94
0.91
Al-Dhafra xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.91 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 0.50 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 0.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 4, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Dhafra 2-3 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 50%, Al-Dhafra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khorfakkan) and 25% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 25% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 3-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.04 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.91 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 34% | Draw 39% | Al-Dhafra 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 50%, Al-Dhafra 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.50 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.