Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 2D 5L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Bataeh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Al Bataeh are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Khorfakkan 25% | Al Bataeh 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 50% | Al Bataeh 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.18 xG and Al Bataeh 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / defence 1.117 | Al Bataeh attack 0.947 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.293. Data: 30 Khorfakkan games / 4 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 39%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Al Bataeh 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Bataeh at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 60% | Al Bataeh 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Khorfakkan 1.18 / Al Bataeh 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.937 / def 1.117 | Al Bataeh attack 0.947 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al Bataeh xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 14:15 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Khorfakkan 3 - 0 Al Bataeh.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 30% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.95x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
30%
3.35
31%
3.19
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.55
1.37
Al Bataeh xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.37 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Bataeh's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Bataeh are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 25%.
Defensively: Al Bataeh in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Khorfakkan or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Khorfakkan) and 25% (Al Bataeh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khorfakkan) and 50% (Al Bataeh).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh in 50%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 25% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 50% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Bataeh 3-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.18 xG and Al Bataeh 1.37 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Bataeh landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Al Bataeh attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 39%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 50%, Al Bataeh 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Bataeh arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khorfakkan scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.