Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-3 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Dibba Stadium to face Dibba Al-Fujairah in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ajman have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Ajman are the stronger side — 0.77 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajman — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 67% and Ajman 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Ajman 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.36 xG and Ajman 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.836 / defence 1.229 | Ajman attack 0.943 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.185. Data: 3 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 29 Ajman games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 35% | Draw 29% | Ajman 36%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Ajman 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 67% | Ajman 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 35% | Draw 29% | Ajman 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.36 / Ajman 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.836 / def 1.229 | Ajman attack 0.943 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Ajman (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ajman xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 3 Ajman.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 35% chance of winning, Ajman a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D. Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.94x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.43
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.73
1.37
Ajman xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.37 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Dibba Al-Fujairah against 0.33 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ajman in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Ajman have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Ajman have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 67% for Ajman — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 33% for Ajman.
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajman in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 67% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 33% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajman in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-3 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.36 xG and Ajman 1.37 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against Ajman attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 35% | Draw 29% | Ajman 36%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%, Ajman 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.33 PPG, Ajman 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.