Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium to face Dibba Al-Fujairah in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:25 UTC.
Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajman have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1.40 for Ajman — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Ajman have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Ajman winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajman have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ajman — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 62% versus Ajman 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 58% | Ajman 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.18 xG and Ajman 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.836 / defence 1.055 | Ajman attack 0.827 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.479. Data: 24 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 50 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 29% | Ajman 38%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Ajman 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% | Ajman 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 29% | Ajman 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.18 / Ajman 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.836 / def 1.055 | Ajman attack 0.827 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Ajman (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ajman xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman kicked off at 16:25 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 - 2 Ajman.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 33% chance of winning, Ajman a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman?
Record (3 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 0 | Ajman 3W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.83x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 24/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.47
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.47
1.29
Ajman xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.29 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 5W 5D 14L from 24 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 12L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Dibba Al-Fujairah against 1.17 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dibba Al-Fujairah have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 5W 1D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 0.96 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Ajman have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 1.17 PPG; Ajman away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Ajman have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 67%, Ajman 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 33% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 33%; Ajman in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 25% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 33% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.18 xG and Ajman 1.29 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Ajman attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% | Draw 29% | Ajman 38%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 58%, Ajman 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajman's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.