Baniyas SC 1-3 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 45%, yet in-form Al-Wasl FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Wasl FC travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 12:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Wasl FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Baniyas SC have won 0, Al-Wasl FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baniyas SC trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 51% versus Al-Wasl FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 49% | Al-Wasl FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.33 xG and Al-Wasl FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.964 / defence 0.786 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.931 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.330. Baniyas SC's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Baniyas SC games / 35 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Wasl FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Wasl FC 3.70. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baniyas SC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Wasl FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 50% | Al-Wasl FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Wasl FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Baniyas SC 1.33 / Al-Wasl FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.964 / def 0.786 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.931 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Wasl FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Baniyas SC 1 - 3 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 45% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (2 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 1W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.61
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.31
0.97
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 0.97 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 11W 9D 15L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 14W 12D 9L from 35 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.20 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baniyas SC have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 14W 12D 9L in their last 35 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2023, when Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
7
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-0 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 47%, Al-Wasl FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Baniyas SC) and 47% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 35%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 59% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 47% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Baniyas SC 1-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.33 xG and Al-Wasl FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.96 / defence 0.79 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 45% | Draw 28% | Al-Wasl FC 27%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 49%, Al-Wasl FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.20 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.