Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 40%, yet in-form Al-Wasl FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Zabeel Stadium to face Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Pro League fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Wasl FC. A 3.00 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (3.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 0.72 xG and Khorfakkan 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.150 | Khorfakkan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.634 / away 0.977. Data: 1 Al-Wasl FC games / 1 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 26% | Draw 34% | Khorfakkan 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Khorfakkan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Al-Wasl FC's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Wasl FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 26% | Draw 34% | Khorfakkan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Al-Wasl FC 0.72 / Khorfakkan 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.983 / def 1.150 | Khorfakkan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.634 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Khorfakkan xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 26% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.85x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
26%
3.80
34%
2.94
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
1.67
0.95
Khorfakkan xG
3.80
26%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 18.0 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.95 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 100%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Al-Wasl FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
3
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 100% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 100% of Khorfakkan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan finished level at 1-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 0.72 xG and Khorfakkan 0.95 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Khorfakkan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 26% | Draw 34% | Khorfakkan 40%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 0%, Khorfakkan 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.