Al-Wasl FC 3-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Wasl FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 1D 2L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.86 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Wasl FC's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Wasl FC 1W, Al Bataeh 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Wasl FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 71% and Al Bataeh 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 71% | Al Bataeh 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.99 xG and Al Bataeh 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.192 / defence 0.882 | Al Bataeh attack 0.853 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.511. Data: 40 Al-Wasl FC games / 14 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al Bataeh 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 70% | Al Bataeh 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.99 / Al Bataeh 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.192 / def 0.882 | Al Bataeh attack 0.853 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Bataeh xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC 3 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 57% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.85x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 40/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.64
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.14
Al Bataeh xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
3%
34.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.14 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 5D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Al Bataeh travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 4-1 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Al-Wasl FC
0
Draws
0
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 8, Al Bataeh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Bataeh see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 71%, Al Bataeh 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Al-Wasl FC and 57% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 43% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 57% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 3-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.99 xG and Al Bataeh 1.14 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Al Bataeh attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 21%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 71%, Al Bataeh 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.