Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Wasl FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Wasl FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at Zabeel Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Wasl FC's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Al-Wasl FC are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Wasl FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Wasl FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 61% and Al Bataeh 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 58% | Al Bataeh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.11 xG and Al Bataeh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.881 / defence 0.644 | Al Bataeh attack 0.968 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.511. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.644 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Al-Wasl FC games / 42 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Bataeh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Al Bataeh 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 50% | Al Bataeh 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Bataeh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.11 / Al Bataeh 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.881 / def 0.644 | Al Bataeh attack 0.968 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al Bataeh xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 0 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 39% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 7W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.97x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.31
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.05
0.94
Al Bataeh xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.94 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 41 games, going 20W 12D 9L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.98 PPG from 41 outings (10W 10D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 12W 5D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.12 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 20W 12D 9L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 4-1 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Al-Wasl FC
0
Draws
0
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 8, Al Bataeh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 55%, Al Bataeh 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Wasl FC) and 50% (Al Bataeh).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 60% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 50% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al Bataeh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 1-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.11 xG and Al Bataeh 0.94 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.64 against Al Bataeh attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Bataeh 30%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 58%, Al Bataeh 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.