Al-Wasl FC 4-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Wasl FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Wasl FC's favour (2.30 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Wasl FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Bataeh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Wasl FC 2W, Al Bataeh 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Wasl FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 71% and Al Bataeh 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 68% | Al Bataeh 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.79 xG and Al Bataeh 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.126 / defence 0.855 | Al Bataeh attack 0.997 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.775. Data: 34 Al-Wasl FC games / 34 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 43% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al Bataeh 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 70% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 43% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.79 / Al Bataeh 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.126 / def 0.855 | Al Bataeh attack 0.997 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.775 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al Bataeh xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC 4 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 43% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (1.00x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.85
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.51
Al Bataeh xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.51 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 34 games, going 19W 10D 5L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (8W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 9W 4D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (6W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.24 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 19W 10D 5L in their last 34 games (1.97 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.94 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 4-1 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Al-Wasl FC
0
Draws
0
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 8, Al Bataeh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 69%, Al Bataeh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Wasl FC and 75% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 56% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 75% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Bataeh 4-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.79 xG and Al Bataeh 1.51 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Al Bataeh attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 43% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 31%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 68%, Al Bataeh 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.