Al Wahda FC 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al Wahda FC) versus 1.90 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Wahda FC, 3 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 56% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 63% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.143 / defence 0.978 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.055 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.418. Data: 27 Al Wahda FC games / 27 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 40% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 40% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.57 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.143 / def 0.978 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.055 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Wahda FC 0 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 40% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (8 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.15
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.46
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.46 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 14W 9D 4L from 27 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 1L across 27 games — 2.44 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wahda FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 7W 5D 1L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 8W 4D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.19 scored and 0.81 conceded. Al Wahda FC's scoring rate against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 14W 9D 4L in their last 27 games (1.89 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 6D 1L in their last 27 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 5D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Wahda FC
6
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 69%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Al Wahda FC and 69% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Wahda FC's games and 77% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 69% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Wahda FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.46 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 40% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 63%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.