Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC host Al Bataeh at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wahda FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Nahyan Stadium this season.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Bataeh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Wahda FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Bataeh in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al Bataeh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 50% versus Al Bataeh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 54% | Al Bataeh 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.89 xG and Al Bataeh 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.975 / defence 0.963 | Al Bataeh attack 0.940 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.443. Data: 26 Al Wahda FC games / 26 Al Bataeh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Al Bataeh 3.85. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 60% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.89 / Al Bataeh 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.975 / def 0.963 | Al Bataeh attack 0.940 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al Bataeh xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 51% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
51%
1.96
22%
4.46
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.31
Al Bataeh xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.31 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 26 games, going 15W 7D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. Al Wahda FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.81 PPG from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. Al Bataeh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (4W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.15 scored and 2.19 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Pre-Season
Al Bataeh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 15W 7D 4L in their last 26 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 54%, Al Bataeh 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Wahda FC and 77% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 54% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 77% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.89 xG and Al Bataeh 1.31 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Al Bataeh attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 26%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 54%, Al Bataeh 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.