Al Urooba 1-4 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Urooba at 40%, yet in-form Khorfakkan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Urooba host Khorfakkan at Fujairah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 4D 4L from 8 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.38 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Urooba have posted 0W 3D 1L at Fujairah Stadium — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khorfakkan — All Games: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Khorfakkan — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Urooba register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Khorfakkan in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Al Urooba in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 62% versus Khorfakkan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Urooba 62% | Khorfakkan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.71 xG and Khorfakkan 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 1.143 / defence 1.525 | Khorfakkan attack 0.805 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.246. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Al Urooba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Al Urooba games / 8 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 40% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Khorfakkan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Urooba are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khorfakkan (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Urooba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 75% | Khorfakkan 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fujairah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 40% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Urooba 1.71 / Khorfakkan 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 1.143 / def 1.525 | Khorfakkan attack 0.805 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Al Urooba (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Khorfakkan xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Fujairah Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Al Urooba 1 - 4 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Fujairah Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 40% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Urooba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Urooba and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Urooba and Khorfakkan in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.38 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 1.14x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Urooba Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.72
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.24
1.53
Khorfakkan xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.53 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 0W 4D 4L from 8 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 2L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Khorfakkan by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Urooba have managed 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Al Urooba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
The Goals Picture
Al Urooba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.38 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Khorfakkan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Urooba's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 1.00 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Urooba or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Urooba have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Khorfakkan won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2025, when Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Urooba at 100%, Khorfakkan at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Urooba and 67% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Urooba's games and 67% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Urooba's matches and 67% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Urooba and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Urooba 1-4 at Fujairah Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.71 xG and Khorfakkan 1.53 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 1.14 / defence 1.52 against Khorfakkan attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 40% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 33%, with Al Urooba to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 62%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Urooba (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.