Al Urooba 4-5 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Urooba face Al-Jazira.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Stadium plays host to Al Urooba versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Urooba have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Urooba have posted 1W 0D 6L at Dibba Stadium — 0.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Jazira have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Jazira are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Urooba have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Al-Jazira in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Al-Jazira have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al Urooba's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Jazira winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Jazira have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al Urooba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 50% versus Al-Jazira 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Urooba 71% | Al-Jazira 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.06 xG and Al-Jazira 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.673 / defence 1.407 | Al-Jazira attack 1.149 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.430. Al Urooba's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Al Urooba games / 40 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 16% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 65%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 6.25 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Jazira 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 71% | Al-Jazira 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 16% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Urooba 1.06 / Al-Jazira 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.673 / def 1.407 | Al-Jazira attack 1.149 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Al-Jazira xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Al Urooba 4 - 5 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 16% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 65% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Urooba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Jazira?
Record (3 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Jazira in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Urooba's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (1.15x) against Al Urooba's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.31.
These ratings are built from 14/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
16%
6.29
19%
5.34
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.37
2.31
Al-Jazira xG
6.29
16%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
10%
10.09
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
2%
63.49
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Al Urooba and 2.31 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Al Urooba have picked up 0.21 PPG on a 1W 0D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 6W 3D 5L from 14 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Urooba have posted 0.43 PPG from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Urooba are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 13L in their last 14 games (0.21 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 0.43 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
0
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Jazira?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Al Urooba 4-5 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 71%, Al-Jazira 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Urooba and 71% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Urooba's games and 57% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Urooba's matches and 71% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Urooba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al Urooba 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Urooba 4-5 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.06 xG and Al-Jazira 2.31 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Al Urooba beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Jazira outscored their 2.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.67 / defence 1.41 against Al-Jazira attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 16% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 65%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 71%, Al-Jazira 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.