Al Nasr 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Nasr (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Nasr face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 May 2026 at 15:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Nasr: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Al Nasr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Nasr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 68% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 58% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.111 / defence 1.131 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.980 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.455. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Al Nasr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Al Nasr games / 50 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.45. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 80% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Al Nasr 2.09 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.111 / def 1.131 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.980 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 48% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (8 meetings): Al Nasr 4W | Draws 3 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.39
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.70
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
4%
27.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.61 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 15D 16L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 13W 17D 20L from 50 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 7W 7D 10L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.32 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.46 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Al Nasr won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Nasr
4
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 67%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Nasr) and 67% (Al-Ittihad Kalba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Nasr's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Nasr's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 58%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.