Al Nasr 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 April 2024 at 15:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Maktoum Stadium this season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 48% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 50% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.73 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.936 / defence 0.775 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.959 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.753. Al Nasr's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Al Nasr games / 46 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.45. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Nasr 1.73 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.936 / def 0.775 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.959 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.753 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:05 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 47% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (5 meetings): Al Nasr 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Nasr's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.11
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.03
1.30
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.30 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 10D 19L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.33 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (11W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.64 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Nasr have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2021, when Al-Ittihad Kalba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Nasr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Nasr 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 36%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al Nasr) and 73% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 64% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al Nasr's recent games and 73% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba finished level at 2-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.73 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.30 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.94 / defence 0.78 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 50%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.33 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.