Al-Jazira 1-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Jazira welcome Sharjah FC to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 2 November 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Jazira at 1.60 PPG versus Sharjah FC's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 1 for Sharjah FC and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 3–2 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 72% versus Sharjah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 62% | Sharjah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.57 xG and Sharjah FC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.058 / defence 0.876 | Sharjah FC attack 1.082 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.736. Data: 32 Al-Jazira games / 32 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 36% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Sharjah FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 80% | Sharjah FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Nov 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 36% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Jazira 1.57 / Sharjah FC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.058 / def 0.876 | Sharjah FC attack 1.082 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.736 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Sharjah FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 12:45 on Thursday 2 November 2023 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira 1 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 36% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Jazira 2W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.06) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
36%
2.79
25%
3.97
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.21
1.64
Sharjah FC xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.64 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 17W 5D 10L from 32 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 9L across 32 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.75 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 9W 3D 4L from 16 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 10W 3D 3L across 16 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded. Al-Jazira's scoring rate against Sharjah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 17W 5D 10L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.88 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 62%, Sharjah FC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Jazira) and 38% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 31% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 38% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC finished level at 1-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.57 xG and Sharjah FC 1.64 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Sharjah FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 36% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 39%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 62%, Sharjah FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.75 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.