Al-Jazira 0-5 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Jazira face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Al-Wasl FC at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Monday 7 April 2025 at 15:50 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Al-Wasl FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Jazira 1.40 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Jazira, 2 for Al-Wasl FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2024, ended Al-Jazira 2–2 Al-Wasl FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 68% and Al-Wasl FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 66% | Al-Wasl FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.34 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.909 / defence 0.864 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.988 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.261. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 44 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.34 | Draw 3.67 | Al-Wasl FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 15:50 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al-Jazira 1.34 / Al-Wasl FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.909 / def 0.864 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.988 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Wasl FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:50 UK time on Monday 7 April 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Jazira 0 - 5 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 43% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 44 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.67
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.42
1.08
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.08 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 11D 15L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 28W 10D 6L from 44 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Jazira.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 12W 6D 3L from their last 21 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.32 scored and 1.18 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Al-Wasl FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 28W 10D 6L in their last 44 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Apr 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won Al-Jazira 0-5 Al-Wasl FC.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 67%, Al-Wasl FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Jazira and 71% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Jazira's games and 62% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Jazira's matches and 71% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 81% of Al-Wasl FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Jazira 0-5 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.34 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 30%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 66%, Al-Wasl FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.