Al-Jazira 0-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al-Jazira, 1.50 for Ajman — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Jazira lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 59% versus Ajman 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 66% | Ajman 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.04 xG and Ajman 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.276 / defence 0.997 | Ajman attack 1.012 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.297. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Al-Jazira games / 32 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 54% | Draw 23% | Ajman 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 4.17. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 60% | Ajman 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 54% | Draw 23% | Ajman 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Jazira 2.04 / Ajman 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.276 / def 0.997 | Ajman attack 1.012 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ajman xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Al-Jazira 0 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Ajman part of?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 54% chance of winning, Ajman a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Jazira and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Jazira 1W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (1.01x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.36
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.35
1.31
Ajman xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
3%
32.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.31 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 17W 5D 10L from 32 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 13L across 32 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 12W 1D 2L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ajman's away record stands at 6W 1D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.34 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 17W 5D 10L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Ajman have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Ajman away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.47 PPG; Ajman away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ajman in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 3, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 60%, Ajman 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Jazira and 60% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ajman in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 40% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Jazira's matches and 60% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Jazira and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Ajman in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Jazira 0-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.04 xG and Ajman 1.31 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Ajman attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 54% | Draw 23% | Ajman 24%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ajman win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 66%, Ajman 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.