Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 2 March 2023 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 5W 0D 5L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.999 / defence 1.195 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.148 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.395. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 43 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 22% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Mar 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 22% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.999 / def 1.195 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.148 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 2 March 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 22% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (1.00) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.15x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
22%
4.65
22%
4.52
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.01
1.91
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.65
22%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.78
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
3%
31.51
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.91 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 13D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 1.81 PPG from 43 outings (23W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.56 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.38 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 38% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 29% of games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 52% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 38% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.91 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.15 / defence 0.70, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 22% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 49%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.