Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Al Nasr.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al Nasr to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al Nasr — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Al Nasr have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 PPG, Al Nasr 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 60% of Al Nasr's (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Nasr 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–3 Al Nasr — a Al Nasr win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 54% versus Al Nasr 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% | Al Nasr 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.83 xG and Al Nasr 2.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.913 / defence 1.233 | Al Nasr attack 1.149 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.785. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 33 games and Al Nasr's last 33.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 19% | Al Nasr 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.60 | Draw 5.32 | Al Nasr 1.87. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 77% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% — both xG figures (1.83 / 2.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 53% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.36 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 60% (last 10 away games).

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