Al-Dhafra 3-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Dhafra welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al-Dhafra) versus 1.80 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Dhafra, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 67% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 67% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.58 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 1.194 / defence 1.077 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.209 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.245. Al-Ittihad Kalba have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Al-Dhafra games / 32 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 100% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.58 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 1.194 / def 1.077 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.209 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Dhafra 3 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 37% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (1.19) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
37%
2.68
23%
4.27
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
3.20
1.62
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.62 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 3W 0D 3L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 1.50 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Al-Dhafra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.83 PPG overall record — Al-Ittihad Kalba travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.17 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Al-Dhafra won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
3
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Dhafra at 100%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Dhafra and 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Dhafra's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Dhafra run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-0 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.58 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.62 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 1.19 / defence 1.08 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Dhafra win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 67%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 1.50 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Dhafra win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.