Al-Dhafra 1-4 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Ain (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Dhafra face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Dhafra Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al Ain in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 4W 1D 5L at Al Dhafra Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Al Dhafra Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Ain (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Ain arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al Ain hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–7 with Al Ain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Ain have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al Ain — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 50% versus Al Ain 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 52% | Al Ain 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.36 xG and Al Ain 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.860 / defence 0.952 | Al Ain attack 1.148 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.466. Data: 40 Al-Dhafra games / 40 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 32% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Al Ain 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Ain at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 50% | Al Ain 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 32% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.36 / Al Ain 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.860 / def 0.952 | Al Ain attack 1.148 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Ain xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 4 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 32% chance of winning, Al Ain a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Ain?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Al Ain 3W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Ain in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.86) and Al Ain's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.15x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.12
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.96
1.60
Al Ain xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
7%
15.32
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.60 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 40 games, going 7W 8D 25L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Ain sit at 2.25 PPG from 40 outings (27W 9D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 5W 5D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Ain have taken 2.11 points per game from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.30 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 7W 8D 25L in their last 40 games (0.72 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 27W 9D 4L in their last 40 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.05 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Al Ain in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Ain go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 7-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
6
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Ain?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 0, Al Ain have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Ain 5-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 58%, Al Ain 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Dhafra) and 47% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 47%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 47% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 47% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Dhafra 1-4 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.36 xG and Al Ain 1.60 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al Ain outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Al Ain attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 32% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 43%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 52%, Al Ain 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al Ain's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.