Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 37%, yet in-form Ajman provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Dhafra vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Al Dhafra Stadium to face Al-Dhafra in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 19 December 2022 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's home record at Al Dhafra Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Al Dhafra Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ajman are 1.30 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra in recent Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Dhafra lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Al-Dhafra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 50% versus Ajman 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 53% | Ajman 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.33 xG and Ajman 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.918 / defence 1.006 | Ajman attack 0.981 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.344. Data: 36 Al-Dhafra games / 36 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 26% | Ajman 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Ajman 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 50% | Ajman 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Dec 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 26% | Ajman 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.33 / Ajman 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.918 / def 1.006 | Ajman attack 0.981 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ajman xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Ajman kicked off at 12:45 on Monday 19 December 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 37% chance of winning, Ajman a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Dhafra 2W | Draws 0 | Ajman 0W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Ajman in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.98x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.84
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.66
1.33
Ajman xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.33 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 6W 8D 22L from 36 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 14L across 36 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajman by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 4W 5D 8L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 7W 1D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 6W 8D 22L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Ajman have gone 15W 7D 14L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.00 PPG; Ajman away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Dhafra won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Ajman have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 59%, Ajman 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Dhafra) and 59% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 35% of games; Ajman in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 41% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 59% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ajman in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Al-Dhafra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Dhafra 0-1 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.33 xG and Ajman 1.33 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Ajman attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 37% | Draw 26% | Ajman 37%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 53%, Ajman 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajman's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.