Al-Dhafra 3-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Al Dhafra Stadium to face Al-Dhafra in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 4 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's home record at Al Dhafra Stadium: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Pro League appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 3W 1D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al-Dhafra against 1.10 for Ajman. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Dhafra lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Al-Dhafra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 53% versus Ajman 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 42% | Ajman 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.10 xG and Ajman 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.910 / defence 1.258 | Ajman attack 0.892 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.229. Data: 19 Al-Dhafra games / 19 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 30% | Draw 27% | Ajman 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Ajman 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 67% | Ajman 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 30% | Draw 27% | Ajman 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.10 / Ajman 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.910 / def 1.258 | Ajman attack 0.892 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Ajman (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ajman xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Ajman kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Al-Dhafra 3 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 30% chance of winning, Ajman a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Dhafra 1W | Draws 0 | Ajman 0W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Ajman in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.89x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.73
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
Ajman xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.38 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 2W 7D 10L from 19 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 8L across 19 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajman by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 1W 4D 4L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.16 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 2W 7D 10L in their last 19 games (0.68 PPG), while Ajman have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.78 PPG; Ajman away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Ajman in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Dhafra won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Ajman have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 67%, Ajman 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Dhafra) and 44% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 33%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajman in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 33% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 44% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ajman in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Dhafra run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Ajman 3-0 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.10 xG and Ajman 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Dhafra beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 30% | Draw 27% | Ajman 43%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Dhafra win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 42%, Ajman 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.