Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Dhafra in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's home record at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ajman are 0.80 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra in recent Pro League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Dhafra lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 54% versus Ajman 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 54% | Ajman 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.08 xG and Ajman 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.723 / defence 1.313 | Ajman attack 0.886 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.399. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Al-Dhafra games / 48 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 25% | Draw 25% | Ajman 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Ajman 2.00. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Dhafra 50% | Ajman 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 25% | Draw 25% | Ajman 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.08 / Ajman 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.723 / def 1.313 | Ajman attack 0.886 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Ajman (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Ajman xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Ajman kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 25% chance of winning, Ajman a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Dhafra 2W | Draws 1 | Ajman 2W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Ajman in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.89x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 22/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
25%
3.99
25%
3.98
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.71
1.63
Ajman xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
20.34
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.63 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 5W 3D 14L from 22 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 12L across 22 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Al-Dhafra against 1.09 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 4W 0D 7L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 4W 1D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 0.95 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Ajman have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.09 PPG; Ajman away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Dhafra won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Ajman have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 54%, Ajman 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Al-Dhafra) and 36% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 36% of games; Ajman in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 27% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 36% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ajman in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al-Dhafra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Dhafra 0-1 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.08 xG and Ajman 1.63 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.72 / defence 1.31 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 25% | Draw 25% | Ajman 50%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 54%, Ajman 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajman's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.82 PPG, Ajman 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.