Al Bataeh 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Bataeh welcome Ajman to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajman are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Ajman and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 60% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 75% | Ajman 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.82 xG and Ajman 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.971 / defence 1.471 | Ajman attack 0.997 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.463. Ajman bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Al Bataeh games / 46 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 21% | Ajman 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Ajman 2.17. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Ajman 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 21% | Ajman 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Bataeh 1.82 / Ajman 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.971 / def 1.471 | Ajman attack 0.997 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Ajman (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Ajman xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Ajman kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Al Bataeh 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Ajman part of?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 34% chance of winning, Ajman a 46% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Bataeh and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
34%
2.98
21%
4.86
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.97
2.15
Ajman xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.85
Clean Sheet
12%
8.54
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
4%
25.46
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.15 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 4W 5D 11L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 10W 4D 6L from 20 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajman are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 0.40 PPG from 10 outings (0W 4D 6L). That actually lags their 0.85 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Ajman have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ajman in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Ajman have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.40 PPG; Ajman away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ajman in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 70%, Ajman 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al Bataeh and 60% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Bataeh's games and 50% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al Bataeh's matches and 60% of Ajman's.
Do Al Bataeh and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ajman in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al Bataeh and Ajman drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.82 xG and Ajman 2.15 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ajman landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.97 / defence 1.47 against Ajman attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 20/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 21% | Ajman 46%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 75%, Ajman 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.