Al Ain 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al Ain. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Ain 1.80 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Ain, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Al Ain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 66% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Ain 75% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.98 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.178 / defence 1.090 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.192 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.771. Data: 44 Al Ain games / 45 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 34% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 2.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.28 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 80% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 34% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 78% | xG Al Ain 1.98 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.178 / def 1.090 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.192 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.771 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
2.30
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Ain 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 34% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 46% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (5 meetings): Al Ain 2W | Draws 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Ain's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 2.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.2%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.2%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
34%
2.97
21%
4.81
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al Ain xG
Total xG
4.28
2.30
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.57
Clean Sheet
10%
9.97
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
3%
29.65
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al Ain and 2.30 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 4.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 27W 9D 8L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 29W 10D 5L from 44 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Ain on 2.05 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 2.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (13W 5D 4L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 13W 7D 2L from 22 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Ain are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.30 scored and 1.07 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Ain have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 27W 9D 8L in their last 44 games (2.05 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 29W 10D 5L in their last 44 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Al Ain won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Ain
3
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 4, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Al Ain 3-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Ain at 68%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al Ain and 68% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Ain's games and 73% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al Ain's matches and 68% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Ain and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al Ain 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Ain 1-2 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.98 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.30 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Ain fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.18 / defence 1.09 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 34% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 75%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Ain 2.05 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.