Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Ain (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Ain face Dibba Al-Fujairah.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah meet at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al Ain (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Ain's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al Ain have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Dibba Al-Fujairah managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Al Ain winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Ain and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Ain 48% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 56% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 3.27 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.429 / defence 0.674 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.841 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Al Ain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 3.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Al Ain's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Ain's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Al Ain games / 25 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 83% | Draw 11% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al Ain 40% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 83% | Draw 11% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Ain 3.27 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.429 / def 0.674 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.841 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.27
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
54%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Ain 4 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 83% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 5% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (3 meetings): Al Ain 3W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al Ain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.43x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 3.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.84x) against Al Ain's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 51/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
83%
1.20
11%
8.77
5%
18.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.27
Al Ain xG
Total xG
4.09
0.82
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.20
83%
Home win
8.77
11%
Draw
18.98
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
4%
26.31
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 3.27 expected goals for Al Ain and 0.82 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 20W 5D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form line: 5W 5D 15L from 25 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.50 PPG from 12 outings (9W 3D 0L).
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Ain are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 1.00 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah in 60%.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 20W 5D 0L in their last 25 games (2.60 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al Ain's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.50 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Ain have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Ain have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al Ain
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 42%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Ain) and 58% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Ain's recent matches and 58% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Ain vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Ain's recent games and 58% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Ain and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-0 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 3.27 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.82 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.43 / defence 0.67 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.84 / defence 1.55, drawn from 51/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 83% | Draw 11% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 56%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.