Ajman 4-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Ajman have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ajman have won 0, Khorfakkan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Khorfakkan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Khorfakkan trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 40% versus Khorfakkan 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 45% | Khorfakkan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.70 xG and Khorfakkan 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.872 / defence 1.252 | Khorfakkan attack 0.720 / defence 1.627. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.294. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.627 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Ajman games / 20 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 50% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 26%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 3.85. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 50% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 50% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Ajman 1.70 / Khorfakkan 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.872 / def 1.252 | Khorfakkan attack 0.720 / def 1.627 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Ajman (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Khorfakkan xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Ajman 4 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Ajman vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Khorfakkan part of?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 50% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ajman and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Record (1 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.18
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.87
1.17
Khorfakkan xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ajman and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ajman and 1.17 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 11L across 20 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.25 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Khorfakkan away?
Ajman's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.50 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Ajman or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 50%, Khorfakkan 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Ajman and 80% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 30% of games; Khorfakkan in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ajman's games and 70% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Ajman's matches and 80% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Ajman and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Khorfakkan 4-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.70 xG and Khorfakkan 1.17 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Khorfakkan attack 0.72 / defence 1.63, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 50% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 26%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 45%, Khorfakkan 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.25 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.